There is a saying in football that 2-0 is the most dangerous lead. The theory is that at two goals to the good, a side relaxes and takes their foot off the pedal. At that point, the opposition side has nothing to lose and so can play aggressively but without pressure. If they can take advantage of the other club’s complacency and get a goal, all of a sudden momentum swings.
The side with the lead promptly has all the pressure on them, whilst, despite being 2-1 down, their opponents have a surge in morale and confidence. 2-1 can very easily become 2-2 and then with momentum entirely one way, the team that seemingly had no chance at all can pile forward and capitalise on the shock in the opposition ranks to nick the game 3-2.
Well, that’s the theory. Of course, it is complete rubbish. No player, manager or fan in the world would rather be 1-0 up than 2-0 up. What sort of team would sit back at 2-0 up and let things slip? Some sort of easing off might occur but surely as soon as the other side scored, they would be right back at it and look to make it 3-1. What sort of side would let a 2-0 lead slip? And certainly, surely, this could never happen with sufficient regularity to support the theory that 2-0 really is the most dangerous lead… could it?
Everton Lose from 2-0 Up for the Second Game in a Row!
2-0 lead for Everton. Job done. Game over.
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) September 14, 2024
We will look in more general terms about whether there is any truth in the theory behind this football adage. However, for now, let us look at one team that seems to be doing their very best to support the hypothesis. On Saturday the 14th of September, 2024, for the second game in a row, Everton (rock bottom of the Premier League after four defeats in a row at the time of writing), managed to turn a 2-0 lead into a 3-2 loss.
They could – perhaps should – be comfortably positioned in the top half of the table, with six points. Instead, they have zero points from four matches and a goal difference of minus nine, the worst in the Premier League. Prior to the international break, they went down 3-2 at home to Bournemouth. Then, more recently, they were incredibly clinical to take a 2-0 lead against the run of play at Villa Park, only to capitulate once again.
Panic Sets in During Crazy Last Few Minutes
In truth, neither of the Toffees’ 3-2 defeats fully fit the narrative of 2-0 being a dangerous lead, but their loss against the Cherries at the end of August wasn’t far away. Everton were superb in the first half and indeed for the opening 87 minutes. They led 2-0 and seemed well set to put two opening league defeats behind them and claim a vital win.
They had the better of the opening period but failed to score. They then appeared to have the game wrapped up after scoring twice within 12 minutes of the restart. Bournemouth registered just a single shot on target prior to scoring in the 87th minute. They then scored in the 92nd and 94th minutes to stun the home crowd. And in truth, they could have won by a wider margin as they really pummelled the home team in stoppage time.
But this was not a case of Everton relaxing, it was simply that they failed to take their chances to score in the first half, and then continued to pass up opportunities at 2-0 up. But what happened when their opponents got a goal back does largely fit the “dangerous lead” theory. Everton somehow entirely lost their heads and their shape and within the blink of an eye went from the game’s dominant force to looking like they had never seen a football before. It was an astonishing collapse.
Villa Good Value for Win
The 3-2 turnaround against Villa was a very different game, with the Midlands outfit dominating from the off. In the opening exchanges, Everton hardly had a kick and the hosts could have scored. However, the Toffees were unusually deadly, coring with both of their first two shots of the game. The first was a counter after a high press and the second a classic Everton set piece.
However, despite being two goals to the good, Sean Dyche’s men were never really in control and it was not a major surprise when Villa hit back. It wasn’t a case of the Toffees sitting back, they were simply penned back by a very strong Villa who had been on top for most of the clash. Everton scored with their only two shots on target, whereas Villa managed 17 shots in total, with eight of those on target.
Is 2-0 Really a Dangerous Lead?
Anecdotally, an Everton fan might argue that 2-0 is indeed a dangerous lead. The pain of throwing away such an advantage in successive games creates a lasting memory and many fans are wont to say things such as “That’s typical of us” or “We never do it the easy way”. They genuinely believe that such craziness is unique to their own clubs when the reality is that in the mad world of football, rarely do things go smoothly and merrily.
The stats do not back up the notion that 2-0 is a dangerous lead though. Everton fans with Rainman-esque memories, rather than ones shaped by emotion, might know that, rather than throwing such an advantage away on a regular basis, it is actually something that the Toffees have rarely done.
The defeat against Bournemouth was the first time in 30 games that the Blues had thrown away a two-goal lead to lose. What’s more, of the previous 29 times they had taken such a grip on a match, they had won 28, drawing the other one.
Statistical analysis shows that teams of any level win far more games than they lose or draw once they have established a two-goal lead. There is a difference, naturally enough, between the top sides and those at the other end of the division. Man United never lost a single game under Sir Alex Ferguson when they went 2-0 up – a significant sample given his 27 years at the club.
However you look at it, 2-0 cannot truthfully be called the most dangerous lead. Unless you’re Everton!