Betting should, for the most part, be seen as an occasional pastime or perhaps a hobby. Some view it as an activity that is fun and adds to the enjoyment of sports, and maybe even life in general. But like most hobbies, it costs money, and whereas you might have to pay a set monthly fee to join a gym or learn to play the drums, with betting, the cost comes due to the fact that the vast majority of punters lose money in the long term.
The good news is that if you bet sensibly, on average your overall losses should amount to less than 5% of your total stakes. Provided you pick a good betting site and do not chase losses, all you should expect to lose is the equivalent of the bookmaker’s margin. This ranges from almost nothing at the best bookies in some markets, up to 10% or even more at the opposite end of the spectrum.
However, whilst we would advise viewing betting in this way, that is not to say you should simply accept that you will lose – certainly not all the time. Even if you chose your bets blindly, you would still expect to land a few winners but most punters hope to do better than that and there are various ways you can try and improve your outcome.
How to Make the Most of Available Information
A small number of punters have the time, understanding of probability, and know-how to study the markets carefully and take on the bookies. Others may choose to use free bets and offers to help swing the odds their way, whilst many others prefer to seek out betting tips to give them clues about where to place their cash.
As a general rule, we advise against putting too much faith in betting tips. Afterall, if a tipster was so good, wouldn’t they simply keep their winning picks to themselves and make a fortune? Moreover, so few people are able to consistently beat the bookies, that finding a genuine tipster who can – and who you can trust – is incredibly hard.
Whilst many newspapers and online resources offer a whole host of free betting tips, and these can be an excellent starting point for punters, we are usually especially sceptical when it comes to paid football tipsters. Free tips can give you ideas about possible options and either back up or contradict your own opinions, prompting further research. However, actually paying a third party to gain access to their tips is fraught with peril. But can a paid footy tipster ever deliver the goods?
Use Caution When It Comes to Tipsters
Before we look into the matter more closely, we have to advise extreme caution. There are so many tipsters out there, working either through social media or their own website, and we suspect that many of these are not legitimate. This is an entirely unregulated area, especially when it comes to social media, with no control, security or guarantees offered by the Gambling Commission or any other regulatory body.
As such, let the buyer beware. You pays your money and you takes your chances. It is all too easy for any third party to mislead customers and give the impression that their tips produce a positive outcome. Losing tips can be altered or simply deleted, winners can be posted after the fact, tips can be made at inflated odds that, at best will have gone by the time the tip is made public and at worse may never have been available at that price.
In addition, it should be noted that if you do land a few winners based on tips, there is every chance your betting accounts will be limited or closed by the bookie. They are well within their rights to do this and lots of accounts all placing the same sort of bet – often on unusual markets or picks, or where the bookmaker has got their odds wrong – is a clear red flag that alerts the betting site in question.
Are There Any Legitimate Football Tipping Sites?
We cannot categorically say either way and ultimately if you do decide to opt to use paid tips, we strongly advise beginning with small stakes. If you choose to experiment in this way, you can see for yourself which sites and tipsters deliver the goods.
There are a host of websites that purport to show a number of independent tipsters that post their selections. These sites show a range of stats about the various tipsters, including the average number of bets they produce, their win rate, the return on investment (ROI), the sort of odds their bets tend to be at and what profit you would have made in a given period.
One of the most interesting such sites is tipstrr.com. The most popular – and successful – tipsters on that site appear to show impressive win rates but also, far more importantly, ROI figures of up to 63%. These purport to deliver monthly wins (averaged out over 12 months and based on a £10 level stakes betting system) of over £500 in some cases.
Such paid services often work using a monthly fee which is a rolling subscription. Trials may be offered initially, either giving a limited period of free tips, or a reduced price for the first month or sometimes more. Alternatively paid services may have free versions, offering either fewer tips, or delayed access to them – or both.
If It’s Too Good to Be True, It Probably Is…
We suspect that the old adage about something seeming too good to be true is worth heeding here. The fact that there is no regulation and so many easy ways that stats can be gamed (or outright fabricated) means that any published results are open to question. In addition to that issue, it is also well worth noting the following:
- ROI Based on Best Odds – The ROI is typically based on the best possible odds. Most punters are unlikely to be able to get these prices as the odds will be cut very quickly.
- Account Limits and Closure – Many tips are for obscure markets and leagues, or bet types. This, plus the fact that many other punters will be placing the same bets means betting account closure or limits are highly likely.
- Monthly Fee – You must also factor in the monthly fee as this will impact your bottom line. Those making fewer bets or using smaller stakes will be more affected by this issue.
- What About Losers? – Most tipping sites appear to show very few tipsters that lose money. Are these simply hidden?