At the start of the 1995/96 season Scottish pundit, Alan Hansen, unimpressed by the performance of Manchester United’s youngsters in an opening day 3-1 defeat by Aston Villa, confidently proclaimed that “you can’t win anything with kids”. Man United’s “kids”, the likes of David Beckham, Paul Scholes, Nicky Butt and the Neville brothers, would all go on to play for England and pretty much win the lot with Man United.
If Hanson was still in the Match of the Day hot seat almost 30 years on, we like to think he’d be watching Arsenal and stating that “you can’t win anything with 10 men”. The Gunners have been Man City’s nearest challengers over the past two campaigns and many who support Mikel Arteta’s men will have felt that 2024/25 was going to be their season. That may yet prove to be the case but it seems they have developed a serious issue with red cards.
At the time of writing, we are just eight games into the season and already Arteta’s troops – which may be a fitting word – have collected three red cards. Only two other sides have more than one, with the majority of clubs (11 out of 20) yet to have a man dismissed. Regularly playing with 10 men is sure to hurt any side’s prospect of winning anything, let alone the league, and having a man dismissed in three out of eight games is a massive concern.
Red Cards Equal Points Dropped
It is not impossible, nor even especially uncommon, for a top side to be able to shrug off a dismissal and still go on to collect all three points. But the Gunners, who are already four points off the pace in the PL, have been unable to do so this term. Their most recent red card saw them lose 2-0 to Bournemouth and that is the sort of game they simply have to win if they are to end their long wait for Premier League glory.
Prior to that, they had a man sent off in September against Man City. They drew that 2-2 and looked like they would claim all three points until a 98th-minute equaliser from John Stones. Whilst a point at the Etihad is a decent result, in a sense it was two points dropped, or even three in terms of the direct head-to-head with the Cityzens. Their first dismissal of the Premier League campaign came at the end of August at home to Brighton. They would draw that game 1-1 and were leading until Declan Rice picked up his second yellow of the afternoon.
Whilst three red equates to a sending-off in almost 38% of their games, it is a small sample size. Moreover, we cannot be sure how the games would have played out had the Gunners not had a player dismissed. That said, it seems likely they would have beaten Brighton and Bournemouth. Either way, in the three matches in question they have dropped seven points. In their other five games, where they have managed to keep the full complement on the pitch, they are yet to drop a single point.
Bigger Picture Also a Concern
There is more to worry Arteta than the simple issue of the fact that the only points his men have failed to win have been in games where they have picked up a red card. First, it may be worth pointing out that Arsenal’s main title rivals, Liverpool and Man City, are yet to have a man sent off.
Second, and perhaps related, is that as well as the impact in the game in which the player sees red, there are also wider negatives. This season, more than ever, there has been debate over whether players are being asked to play too many games in too little time. Red cards exacerbate this issue in two ways, and these could hurt Arteta’s men as much as the in-game consequences.
First, they place extra stress on the players that remain on the pitch during the red-card clash. These 10 footballers effectively have to do the work of 11, or at least try, and it is significantly more demanding physically. This could increase the chance of injury in that match or further down the line and also increase the long-term fatigue of the squad.
Second, players who receive a red card will usually miss between one and three games through suspension. That means that the manager has fewer players to call on in general, again increasing overall collective tiredness, but also means that they are occasionally without their best players for key matches.
Against Bournemouth, it was William Saliba who saw red, after just 30 minutes. He is one of Arsenal’s best and most important players and his partnership with Gabriel at the back is key to Arsenal’s defensive solidity. Despite it being a straight red, Saliba should only receive a one-game ban but the game in question is against Liverpool. If Arteta’s men lose they would be seven points behind the Merseysiders and in real trouble in terms of the title race.
Long-Term Issue
Arsenal now have more PL red cards than Liverpool have conceded goals this season
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) October 19, 2024
When we talk of the bigger picture for Arsenal, it is more than just the wider consequences of the reds they have picked up this season. What will perhaps be most worrying for the club is that the issue they have with red cards is not a new one.
In the entire history of the Premier League, they have received 107 reds, with only Everton (108) picking up more. Given that in general the Gunners have had far more of the ball than the Toffees, and that Everton have often been battling for PL survival, that stat is possibly even worse than it looks. Man United have received just 73 red cards, Liverpool a mere 66, and Chelsea 89. (Man City have not played every season of the Premier League so we have discounted them.)
Such long-term data may not be overly important in the here and now. But if we look back at approximately the last five years, since Boxing Day 2019, the picture also looks bleak for Arsenal. In the 180 games they have played since then in the top flight they have collected 18 red cards, one every 10 games. Wolves and Everton have had 13 red cards in that period, with Chelsea and Brighton next on 11.
This is not a new issue but it is one that Arteta has to fix soon, but do so without his side losing any fight, bite or will to win.