Some things in life are certain: fish swim, birds fly, death comes to us all, taxes must be paid, England will extend the years of hurt indefinitely and Manchester City will win the Premier League title. If we are being honest, not all birds fly, if you’re rich enough you possibly don’t pay taxes, and Man City will not win the title every year forever. But in the case of Pep Guardiola’s unstoppable silverware-hunting machine, it does sometimes feel like they are making things a little boring in English football.
Since Guardiola took charge at the Etihad on the 1st of February, 2016, City have won six PL crowns. On top of that they have landed the FA Cup twice, four League Cups and the biggest prize in club football, the Champions League. By winning the Premier League in 2023/24 they became the first side in history to win four PL trophies in a row and, in fact, the first to win four in a row in the entire history of the English top flight.
But of course, for a team like City, records are first there to be broken… and then extended. Claiming an incredible fifth Premier League in succession is very much their aim ahead of the 2024/25 campaign and it would probably take a brave person to bet against them.
City Favourites for More Glory
With Euro 2024 now consigned to history – and forgotten as quickly as possible if you are an England fan now pondering at least 60 “years of hurt” – thoughts for most fans turn to the upcoming PL season. Before a ball has been kicked, and well before the end of the transfer deadline, Pep and co are clear favourites to make it five in a row.
PL Title Odds (*as of 24/07/2024)
The odds will change depending on any managerial switches that might happen between now and the start of the new season and, of course, depending on what transfers the top sides make. However, right now, as we can see, the bookmakers are predicting a two-horse race at the top, with three viable contenders at best:
- Man City – 11/10
- Arsenal – 7/4
- Liverpool – 15/2
- Chelsea – 18/1
- Man United – 25/1
The likes of Spurs (33/1), Newcastle (28/1) and Aston Villa (50/1) may tempt some but, realistically, Man City, Arsenal and just maybe Liverpool are the clubs likely to be involved in the title race come spring 2025.
Will They Get the Job Done?
Winning the Premier League title once is incredibly difficult, as Liverpool found out, but retaining it is even tougher – as the Reds also discovered the season after their 2019/20 success. So it goes, with landing three in a row tougher still and four in succession seemingly impossible… until City achieved it.
The Football League was formed in 1888 and Preston were the first champions in 1889. North End were the original Invincibles, going the whole 22-game season unbeaten. They also won the double that year and since then there have been countless incredible teams but only Man City have managed to win the top-tier title four years running.
Winning a fifth in 2024/25 would be yet more history for Pep’s side and they have to be viewed as worthy favourites. With most of the other so-called big teams in transition, including Chelsea, Liverpool under new boss, Arnie Slot, and Man United, it is easy to see why the Gunners are deemed the only real contenders.
Newcastle have financial issues limiting their ability to strengthen, whilst Villa have the same problem, plus the added stress on their squad of involvement in the Champions League. If Ange can weave his magic at Spurs and get his side to perform at their absolute best there is perhaps a chance they could mount some form of push but the league table from last term is instructive as regards how the new season might play out.
City finished just two points above Arsenal in a race that went to the final day, with Liverpool seven points further back. With the Merseysiders likely to regress at first, at least a little under Slot, and Villa and all the rest 23 points or more adrift of City last term, we may well see a Man City-Arsenal one-two once again in 2024/25.
Can the Gunners Reverse the Standings?
As detailed above, Arsenal are priced at 7/4 for the title in the new Premier League season, with City 11/10. In decimal odds that means that the favourites are 2.10, with the Gunners out at 2.75. These odds imply a probability of 47.62% that City win the title and 36.4% that Arsenal manage it. In terms of value, many would instinctively feel that Pep’s troops are the better pick, as relatively speaking there isn’t all that much between them in terms of your potential return.
It is early days yet, however, and the likelihood of either winning the title (and of course the odds) will change as the transfer window plays out. Man City have various charges hanging over them but it seems highly unlikely they will lead to a points deduction that is imposed this season. As such, it is the two clubs’ dealings in the market that will have the biggest impact.
If Arsenal are to turn the tables on City then strengthening their squad will be crucial. A focal point for their attack in the shape of a world-class striker could make all the difference, whilst a left-back will also be high on their list of priorities. That said, boss Mikel Arteta is very focused on player development, and will feel that if he can just eke out an extra 1% here and there, it will be enough to bridge the gap.
Only City Can Stop City?
Football is unpredictable, and we can’t rule out Unai Emery continuing Villa’s upward trend to create a huge shock, or Slot hitting the ground running and guiding Liverpool to the title. However, it is also very easy to understand why Man City are the favourites with the bookies and why Arsenal are next in line.
Equally, we have looked at what Arsenal might need to turn the tide and for the apprentice, Arteta, to get the better of the master, Guardiola. But it might well be the case that only Manchester City can really stop Manchester City.
By that, we mean that if City are at their best, they may well prove unstoppable and march to a record-extending fifth PL title in a row. However, it is mainly two things that stop a side from retaining their title, or going on to three, four, or more in a row.
First, sides have a target on their back. They are every other team’s cup final and the one they all want to beat. City, however, are used to that. The second, perhaps more important factor, is a mix of complacency and a drop in hunger. Maintaining that desire and drive year after year when you have achieved everything there is to achieve is not easy. Arsenal and all the rest will desperately be hoping that after four in a row, City’s standards and hunger drop just a fraction, for that may be the only thing that can stop them.