At 8pm UK time on the 29th of January all 36 teams in the Champions League kicked off together for their final games of the league phase of the competition. The new format, which replaced the round-robin groups, like most changes in most areas of life, was a little controversial. Whatever the powers that be might have said about their motivation, many felt that the key drivers were financial, and concerned with ensuring the biggest teams progressed.
The league stage of the competition is now complete for the first time and we have a better idea of how the changes have affected things. It is too late to draw any firm conclusions about much, but we can certainly comment on how things played out this time around. Major shocks have, for the most part, been avoided, although of course, that depends on how you define such a surprise.
None of the top teams, ones that would consider themselves at least contenders for the semis and beyond, have been eliminated. From that point of view we haven’t seen anything unexpected, with the 12 teams to have exited European competition, for the most part, the ones we would have thought would be making up the numbers. However, it is now certain that at least one huge team will be knocked out before the last 16. We could easily see more than that though, with a number of true giants of European football not making the top eight of the league stage and thus guaranteeing passage to the round of 16.
Three English Sides Make the Top Eight… Just Not the Three We Expected
Before a ball was kicked most pundits, and certainly those in England, would have expected Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool to make the top eight. As for Villa, a place in the top 16 would have been good, whilst even the top 24 would probably have been an outcome their fans would have accepted well.
Things did not work out that way, and whilst Liverpool and Arsenal had exceptional campaigns, finishing first and third, respectively, City were way down in 22nd. From being seen as the best team in the world at the end of October 2024, they had slumped to being the 22nd best in Europe by the end of January 2025. Which, based on the Champions League table alone, puts them one place below Celtic, a team whose top earner is reported to get less than £40,000 a week! That’s not peanuts by most standards but City have two players who more than 10 times that amount!
The table below shows how the UK sides got on:
| Rank | Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 21 | +12 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 19 | +13 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 16 | +7 |
| 21 | Celtic | 12 | -1 |
| 22 | Man City | 11 | +4 |
Liverpool and Arsenal made very light work of qualifying and their performances have improved the Premier League’s chances of getting a fifth spot in the Champions League next term. As for Villa and City, they had a lot riding on the final round, with the former not certain of finishing in the top eight and the latter needing a win and some help elsewhere to make sure of the top 24.
In the end, Villa beat Celtic 4-2 to squeak into the round of 16 straight away, though Brendan Rodgers’ men have done superbly considering their relatively meagre budget. As for City, they were in real danger of exiting the competition entirely but came from a goal down at home against Club Brugge to win 3-1 and become one of the three teams to make the play-offs with 11 points.
The Top Eight
We have mentioned that three Premier League outfits made the top eight, but who got the other five places? Well, there were some sides that got the job done and secured the sort of rank they would have expected or at least hoped for. Others, however, punched above their weight.
| Rank | Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 21 | +12 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 19 | +15 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 19 | +13 |
| 4 | Inter Milan | 19 | +10 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 18 | +8 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 16 | +8 |
| 7 | Lille | 16 | +7 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 16 | +7 |
The first five would, with varying degrees of expectancy, have fancied their top-eight chances, but Leverkusen, Lille and Villa will certainly be over the moon to have secured their last 16 place without recourse to the playoffs.
It was very tight in the end, with five teams finishing just beyond these clubs on 15 points and some were still in the hunt right to the wire in the final round of games. Leverkusen, Lille and Villa are no mugs, of course, but they have certainly pinched top-eight spots from far bigger and, in theory better, teams.
Who Has Work to Do?
The new #UCL format has levelled the playing field 👊 pic.twitter.com/DI8Avi2GVS
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 30, 2025
The teams ranked from ninth to 24th face a play-off game, with the those that finished ninth to 16th seeded and ties fixed within a bracket. To a large degree, these 16 teams read like a who’s who of European football, boasting a massive 37 European Cup/Champions League titles between them.
The seeded sides include Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Milan, who finished 11th, 12th and 13th respectively and account for 28 of those Champions League titles, being the three most-successful sides in the competition’s history. Also seeded are Atalanta, who came so close to making the top eight and won last season’s Europa league, Borussia Dortmund, past champions PSV and Benfica, and also PSG. That is a seriously strong octet.
The eight teams below them include Man City and Celtic, as said, but also Juventus, with Monaco, Brest, Feyenoord, Sporting Lisbon and Club Brugge completing the line-up. The draw for the two-legged play-offs will be made on the 31st of January but because of the way the competition functions we know that Man City are guaranteed to face a really tough test.
The draw will see them or Celtic, on the one hand, play Bayern or Real, with two incredible games assured for the UK sides. Celtic may view such a glamour tie as a reward but for City, it could prove a cruel punishment for their terrible performances in the league phase. Of course, whichever of Real Madrid or Bayern Munich gets City will not exactly be relishing the clash but come what may, the play-offs look set to be very interesting indeed.