The 2024/25 Premier League title was wrapped up some time ago as Liverpool romped to an unassailable position at the top of the table. At the other end, the three sides at the foot of the table have been so appallingly bad, their fate was sealed before the sides above them needed to break a sweat. But just as the final day of the campaign looked as though it might be far less exciting than it usually is, we have a five-way battle for the three remaining Champions League places.
Okay, it’s hardly akin to the final day of the 2011/12 campaign, which resulted in Man City winning the title against their city rivals United on goal difference. Or indeed 2006/07 in one of the most enthralling relegation scraps ever when Wigan Athletic beat Sheffield United on the final day to stay up… sending the Blades down on goal difference!
We have to be thankful for what we have. And what we have in 2024/25 is Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest all in with a shout of playing in the Champions League next season. But which two will miss out?
Premier League Final Day Fixtures
Let’s take a look at who’s playing whom on the final day, and then we’ll look at the various permutations, including how the side that finishes in eighth place could sneak into the Europa Conference League. All the matches kick off at 16.00 on Sunday 25th May.
- Fulham v Manchester City
- Manchester United v Aston Villa
- Newcastle United v Everton
- Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Let’s see how things stand ahead of the final day. We’ve included the two sides below the Champions League battle as we’ll discuss their chances of getting into the Europa Conference League later.
| Team | Position | Points | Goal Difference | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 3 | 68 | 26 | WWWWDW |
| Newcastle United | 4 | 66 | 22 | WLWDWL |
| Chelsea | 5 | 66 | 20 | DWWWLW |
| Aston Villa | 6 | 66 | 9 | WWLWWW |
| Nottingham Forest | 7 | 65 | 13 | LWLDDW |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 58 | 4 | DLWDWW |
| Brentford | 9 | 55 | 6 | DWWWWL |
Champions League Permutations
To keep things simple for now, at the end of the games on Sunday, the sides who finish in the top five in the table will go into the Champions League, the side that finishes sixth will join FA Cup winners Crystal Palace in the Europa League, and the side who finishes seventh will go into the Europa Conference League.
But Chelsea can earn a place in the Europa League if they win the Europa Conference League final next week (and they haven’t already qualified for that or the Champions League). If Chelsea win the Conference League and finish seventh (which would happen if they lose to Forest and Villa also win), they will go into the Europa League and their Conference League spot would go to the side that finishes in eighth position. That could be the current eighth-place side Brighton or the current ninth-place side Brentford.
The side that finishes in eighth also has a chance of getting into the Europa Conference League if Chelsea win that tournament next week and Newcastle end up finishing in seventh place. As the Magpies have already qualified for the Conference League by winning the League Cup, that place would be given to Brighton or Brentford.
For Brentford to finish eighth, they need to beat Wolves (away) and hope Tottenham finally find some form and get the better of Brighton, though goal difference could come into play as Brighton and Brentford would both finish on 58 points in that scenario.
What Will Happen on the Final Day?
The bookies’ odds show that Man City, Newcastle and Aston Villa are all odds-on favourites to win their games, while Chelsea are warmly fancied to get the win at Forest. But of course, final day results have a habit of going against people’s predictions, and there are numerous factors that will affect the results – not least how the other games are going.
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham – 9/2 | Draw – 7/2 | Man City – 8/13 |
| Man United – 7/2 | Draw – 13/4 | Aston Villa – 4/5 |
| Newcastle – 4/11 | Draw – 23/5 | Everton – 8/1 |
| Nott Forest – 11/5 | Draw – 13/5 | Chelsea – 23/20 |
Scenario 1: Results Follow the Odds
But what happens if the results follow the odds? Given that Man City can guarantee Champions League football with a win (and should make it with a draw), if they get the three points at Fulham, they will finish third – or they might even sneak second if Arsenal screw up really badly (though that scenario relies on a heavy goal-difference swing).
If fourth-placed Newcastle win, they will be in the Champions League (unless Chelsea win very well and Villa win by a record-breaking scoreline, but that isn’t going to happen). Chelsea, whose goal difference is far superior to Villa (who are on the same number of points) can also secure CL qualification with a victory… although Forest will have something to say about that.
If City, Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa all win, as the odds suggest, it will be the first three of them going into the CL, with Villa settling for the Europa League and Forest in the Conference League.
Scenario 2: Stalemates All-Round
One of the simplest scenarios that could play out is if all the relevant matches end up in draws. In this situation, the current positions will stay exactly the same, with Man City, Newcastle and Chelsea joining Liverpool and Man City in next season’s Champions League, Villa going into the Europa League and Forest into the Conference League.
Scenario 3: Anyone’s Guess
Of course, there are several other combinations of results that could shake up the final-day standings. For instance, Villa and Forest could both win, and Newcastle, Man City and (necessarily) Chelsea all lose. If that happens, Villa would finish third on 69 points, Man City fourth on 68 and Forest, whose goal difference isn’t as good as City’s, would take the final Champions League spot, also with 68 points. How Newcastle and Chelsea finish would depend on how badly each lost, with the Magpies’ goal difference currently two better than Chelsea’s.
But really, with so many variables, our advice is to sit back and enjoy it all unfolding on the final day… which should be brilliant for the neutrals at least!