When the draw for the semis of the EFL Cup was made, pitting Liverpool against Tottenham and Arsenal against Newcastle, many felt we were all set for a final between the Merseysiders and the Gunners. Over the last six or seven seasons, these two giants have generally been the ones trying to give Man City a challenge in the title race, with Liverpool, even managing to beat Pep Guardiola’s men in the 2019/20 campaign.
With Manchester City faltering this time around, most fans, pundits and football experts believe that Liverpool and Arsenal are the best two teams in the country, even if Nottingham Forest are doing their darndest to “do a Leicester”, and Chelsea clearly have a lot of potential. The title race increasingly looks like it is Arne Slot’s team’s to lose but even so, for the neutral, a Liverpool versus Arsenal League Cup final would be an exciting prospect.
A win for the Premier League leaders would (prematurely in our opinion) set in motion talk about a possible quadruple. In contrast, victory for Mikel Arteta’s side could prove to be a psychological blow in the title race and help the Gunners go on a strong run to resurrect their bid for the Premier League crown. However, talking of premature, such thoughts have certainly, thus far at least, proved very much too hasty. The first legs of the semis took place on the 7th and 8th of January and there were two rather surprising results.
Newcastle Have One Foot in the Final
It was Newcastle’s visit to the Emirates that was up first and with both teams fielding strong XIs, as is common at this stage of the competition, the hosts were expected to get the win. However, despite playing well at times, and having an xG of more than 3.0, compared to just 1.22 for Newcastle, Arsenal lost on home soil. The Gunners had 23 shots and their opponents just seven, the hosts missing six “big chances”, whilst Eddie Howe’s men took both that fell their way.
Alexander Isak, in amazing form right now, gave the Magpies the lead against the run of play after 37 minutes. Early in the second period Anthony Gordon doubled the lead and Newcastle managed to hold on to that 2-0 advantage. A win, draw, or even a single-goal loss at St James’ Park would see the Magpies through to their third EFL Cup final and give them a real chance of landing the first silverware since the Saudi takeover of the club.
Spurs Win But Reds Remain Big Favourites
Tottenham hosted Liverpool a day after Newcastle’s upset and on home soil they knew they needed to win, and ideally win well, ahead of the tough return leg at Anfield. It was an uninspiring game for the most part but picked up in the second half. It was an even clash for the most part, which counts as a huge plus for Spurs given when the sides met on the 22nd of December, also at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Slot’s men won 6-3.
Spurs’ makeshift defence did a decent job against a misfiring Liverpool and then with just four minutes left Swedish youngster Lucas Bergval got the only goal of the game. 10 minutes earlier the Reds were lucky to escape after a very tight VAR offside call denied Dominic Solanke after a very well-taken “goal”.
That Spurs got the win will give them hope in the return fixture but they know Liverpool will still be favourites to make the final. Anfield is a hard place to go and on the hallowed turf, the home team are capable of overturning almost any first-leg score, as Barcelona found out in the 2018/19 Champions League. It should be an interesting clash!
When Are the Second Legs and Final?
We have a little while to wait before the return legs of the semis, with Liverpool set to host Spurs on the 6th of February. It is a very busy time of year for the clubs involved in European action, and before that game Spurs will play seven other games. Given their current injury issues that is sure to really stretch them, although their opponents will have the same number of games, with both playing in the FA Cup, twice in Europe, plus four times in the Premier League.
Newcastle versus Arsenal takes place a day earlier on Wednesday the 5th of February. The Geordies are the only side of the quartet not in Europe, so they will have to contend with “just” five games between now and the second leg, with Arsenal, like Liverpool and Spurs, having seven. The Carabao Cup final will take place at Wembley as usual. The game is scheduled for the 16th of March, which is a little later in the calendar than usual. But which two sides will be there?
Who Will Make the Final?
Whilst Newcastle and Spurs both got wins in the first leg, Newcastle’s was away from home and by two goals, rather than just one. With Liverpool generally believed to be a stronger side than Arsenal, and Newcastle superior to Spurs (certainly based on their current league position), it is obvious that Howe’s men have a better chance of making the final than Tottenham do.
The current betting has Liverpool at just 4/9 to win their second-leg game and 8/13 to qualify. Spurs, despite their one-goal first-leg win, are out at 6/5 to make it through to the final. In the other game, Arsenal are favourites to win on the night, but the home team are strongly fancied to make it through to the Wembley showpiece. Newcastle are just 1/6 to qualify, with Arsenal way out at chunky odds of 9/2.
Clearly, then, the bookies fancy a final between Newcastle and Liverpool and that is reflected in the overall competition odds. Slot’s men are the favourites at 7/5, with Newcastle 15/8 and the north London duo outsiders at 6/1 (Spurs) and 8/1 (Arsenal). We think this assessment is about right all in all, but then football is a game of surprises, and maybe Spurs – or Arsenal – can spring one!