Although the European Championships are not about individual accolades, scoring goals is the best thing any forward can do to help their team’s chances of success. The player who can register the most goals in the tournament will find themselves crowned Golden Boot winner, an award which has most recently gone to Cristiano Ronaldo, Antoine Griezmann and Fernando Torres. As for who this player will be in Euro 2024, we will take a look at the strongest contenders.
Golden Boot Rules
Before we look at the main Euro 2024 Golden Boot contenders, it is worth going over the rules in place. The award will go to whoever scores the most goals during the tournament. Regular time and extra-time penalties count but successful conversions in a penalty shootout, plus own goals, do not.
In the event that two or more players end up tied on the same number of goals, the first tiebreaker will be the number of assists. If a tie remains, the player with the least minutes played will be crowned the tournament’s official top goalscorer. Note that this applies where you are specifically betting on the Golden Boot, as opposed to tournament top scorer, a market where dead heat rules are likely to apply in the event of a tie.
Betting Considerations
When placing a Golden Boot bet, there are three key player factors to take into account.
- How long will the player be on the pitch for? Is it possible they start on the bench/are they regularly subbed off? It does not matter how good they are if they aren’t on the pitch.
- Are they the team’s designated penalty taker? During Euro 2020, a record-breaking 16 penalties were awarded so it can be an ‘easy’ route to a couple of goals.
- Is their country likely to go far in the competition? Early elimination means fewer matches in which to score. The last two tournaments have also seen a significantly higher goals-per-game figure in the knockout stages.
Main Contenders
Here are the four leading contenders for the Euro 2024 Golden Boot.
Kylian Mbappé – 9/2
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Leading the betting for this year’s race is Kylian Mbappé, who, you may recall claimed the World Cup 2022 Golden Boot with a huge eight-goal haul. Although he offers plenty of appeal following this, many of you will not have forgotten how the Frenchman performed during Euro 2020. Despite being a popular top goalscorer pick, the then-PSG man failed to score from 390 minutes of football.
Mbappé is a better player now than he was during the last tournament though. Moreover, France have also been able to utilise him more effectively. Since 2022, he has netted 23 goals in just 26 appearances for Les Bleus. Before this, the Paris-born forward had 24 goals in 53 games, so he is basically twice the goal threat he used to be. To add to his value, he is on penalty duties and France are expected to go far in the tournament given they are the second favourites.
Harry Kane – 11/2
Much like the man above him, Harry Kane is another World Cup Golden Boot winner thanks to his six-goal haul in Russia in 2018. More recently, he claimed this year’s European Golden Shoe award, courtesy of his 36 Bundesliga goals. A consistent performer for both club and country, he also has the benefit of being almost guaranteed every available minute. This is provided he can avoid any injuries, but he’s only had a couple of fairly minor issues over the past two seasons.
As well as being on penalties, Kane will be England’s lone striker in Gareth Southgate’s system and the focal point of the attack. He does like to drop deep, rather than always playing on the shoulder, but this has never hurt his goalscoring. Since 2021, Kane has bagged himself 31 goals from 40 England appearances. While goals seem a near certainty, the question is whether he will be able to reach four or more, the absolute minimum likely to be needed, given England can struggle for attacking fluency (as seen across their last four friendlies).
Romelu Lukaku – 11/1
Although Belgium’s golden generation has been and gone, they still have a very good side available. As has been the case for many years now, it is a side spearheaded by Romelu Lukaku. The Chelsea man recently enjoyed a successful loan at Roma, where he scored 21 goals in 47 appearances. He will need a better ratio than this to stand a credible chance at the Golden Boot, but this is not out of the question.
For his country, Lukaku has a hugely impressive 85 goals in 115 matches. There has been no tailing off in recent years either as he continues to impress when playing for the Red Devils. The one criticism some have of the powerful striker though is that he is something of a flat-track bully. He scores lots of goals in qualifying (14 this time around – a competition record) but this included four against both Estonia and Azerbaijan. In the bigger games, Lukaku tends to be a little quieter, as shown by his solid but unspectacular record of 6 goals in 845 minutes of European Championship finals action.
Cristiano Ronaldo – 11/1
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Aged 39, Cristiano Ronaldo may not be at the peak of his powers but he is still finding the net on a regular basis. For Al Nassr this season he scored 50 times in 51 matches and goals have continued to come on the international stage too. For his country, the five-time Ballon d’Or winner has registered 10 goals in his last 10 appearances.
Winner of the Euro 2020 Golden Boot, no player has scored more goals in the history of this tournament than the former Real Madrid man (14). In fact, he is five ahead of the next player, which is testament to longevity and his ability to rise to the big occasion. Although Bruno Fernandes is something of a penalty expert, it is expected Ronaldo will take any spot-kicks his side receives. Factor this in with the fact Portugal has one of the easiest groups for a Pot 1 team and CR7 could be set for another fruitful tournament.
Appealing Outsiders
Before we finish, we also wanted to highlight a couple of potential candidates from further down the betting.
Kai Havertz – 14/1
Although Niclas Fullkrug is a contender to lead the line for Germany, it seems more likely that Julian Nagelsmann will give the role to Arsenal’s Kai Havertz. Playing as the most advanced forward for the tournament hosts, who have shown real signs of improvement, gives Havertz a credible Golden Boot chance. He will need to start well, otherwise Naglesmann might be tempted to tinker with his line-up, but with Germany’s relatively easy group, a positive start looks likely.
Alvaro Morata – 14/1
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Another outsider with a genuine shot of claiming the Golden Boot is Spain’s Alvaro Morata. The Atletico man has enjoyed a fine season, scoring 21 club goals across competitions, his best ever in a single campaign. The 31-year-old has not had such luck finding goals for his country of late but he has a decent big tournament record. Across his Euros and World Cup appearances, the former Chelsea man has nine goals across 10 starts, which is a very good return. He will likely have more time on the pitch than he has in the past too, providing Spain can navigate through their challenging group.