There was a time, not so long ago, that the benchmark for a Premier League team’s safety in the top flight was 40 points. Once a club amassed that “magic number” of points, they were almost certainly going to finish clear of relegation. But with the 2024/25 season drawing to a close, it’s notable that just 30 points would have been enough for survival (which is just as well for the likes of Tottenham and Manchester United!). In 2023/24, a total of just 27 points would have seen a club maintain their EPL status for another year (and Nottingham Forest pushed it close by finishing on just 32!).
So the question is, are the last two seasons mere anomalies, or have we moved to a new era in which 30 points really is the new benchmark for Premier League survival?
How Many Points Are Needed for Survival?
Although the 40-point haul has long been seen as the target for clubs who feel they may face a relegation battle, in reality, that tends to be more than enough. The last time a total of 40 points was actually required for Premier League teams to avoid the drop was back in 2010/11. Although very occasionally, even more are needed, such as in 2002/03 when West Ham got relegated with 42 points in the bag… 10 more than Forest survived with in 2023/24!
Below we’ve listed the sides relegated from the top flight since the turn of the century (when a certain Manchester City went down!), plus the points required for survival (ignoring goal difference, for simplicity).
| Season | Relegated Teams | Points Needed for Survival* |
|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Leicester City, Ipswich Town, Southampton | 29** |
| 2023/24 | Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United | 27 |
| 2022/23 | Leicester City, Leeds United, Southampton | 35 |
| 2021/22 | Burnley, Watford, Norwich City | 36 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham, West Bromwich Albion, Sheffield United | 29 |
| 2019/20 | Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich City | 35 |
| 2018/19 | Cardiff City, Fulham, Huddersfield Town | 35 |
| 2017/18 | Swansea City, Stoke City, West Bromwich Albion | 34 |
| 2016/17 | Hull City, Middlesbrough, Sunderland | 35 |
| 2015/16 | Newcastle United, Norwich City, Aston Villa | 38 |
| 2014/15 | Hull City, Burnley, Queens Park Rangers | 36 |
| 2013/14 | Norwich City, Fulham, Cardiff City | 34 |
| 2012/13 | Wigan Athletic, Reading, Queens Park Rangers | 37 |
| 2011/12 | Bolton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers, Wolverhampton Wanderers | 37 |
| 2010/11 | Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Ham United | 40 |
| 2009/10 | Burnley, Hull City, Portsmouth | 31 |
| 2008/09 | Newcastle United, Middlesbrough, West Bromwich Albion | 35 |
| 2007/08 | Reading, Birmingham City, Derby County | 37 |
| 2006/07 | Sheffield United, Charlton Athletic, Watford | 39 |
| 2005/06 | Birmingham City, West Bromwich Albion, Sunderland | 35 |
| 2004/05 | Crystal Palace, Norwich City, Southampton | 34 |
| 2003/04 | Leicester City, Leeds United, Wolverhampton Wanderers | 34 |
| 2002/03 | West Ham United, West Bromwich Albion, Sunderland | 43 |
| 2001/02 | Ipswich Town, Derby County, Leicester City | 37 |
| 2000/01 | Manchester City, Coventry City, Bradford City | 35 |
*Based on one point more than the side that finished 18th.
**Estimate with one game left of 2024/25 season, could be as low as 26 points.
As you can see, often just 35 points would have been enough for a team to maintain their status in the EPL, and the average number of points needed since 2000/01 has been 35.08. But in order to assess whether or not a trend exists, we’ve plotted the totals onto a graph and added a trend line.
There is a clear, if relatively subtle, downward trend in relation to the number of points a team needs to accumulate. But this trend appears to be more pronounced if we use the data from the last time 40 points were required for survival up to the present season.
Based on the data, it appears there is a steady trend for teams to require fewer points for survival, but what are the reasons?
Why Might Teams Need Fewer Points to Survive?
The most obvious hypothesis is that there’s a growing gulf between the sides at the top and the rest. The money earned by Premier League clubs is vast, and significantly more than Championship sides. According to Deloitte’s Annual Review of Football Finance 2024, in the 2022/23 season, the combined revenue of all Championship clubs was £749 million… and not a single club generated an operating profit (at least, before player trading was accounted for). It’s worth noting that £200m of the total revenue came from Premier League parachute payments (to recently relegated sides). In contrast, the total revenue earned by Premier League clubs over the same period was a whopping £6.1 billion.
As such, a side that has been promoted to the Premier League from the Championship will certainly have less financial clout than an established top-flight outfit. This is especially the case for sides that haven’t featured in the Premier League in recent seasons (and hence haven’t enjoyed the extra revenue from parachute payments). But has this notion translated into how well newly promoted clubs have performed in the Premier League?
Interestingly, it has been quite rare for all three newly promoted sides to go straight back down after a single season in the top flight. Indeed, in 2011/12, 2017/18 and 2022/23, all three newly promoted teams stayed up. But when Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all faced the drop after just a season in the EPL in 2023/24, alarm bells sounded. And now, in 2024/25, Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich – all of whom were in the second tier in 2023/24 – have failed to make the grade. And they’ve failed badly, with none of the three making it to 30 points.
Fans of teams in the Championship (and indeed the Football League in general) will be concerned about the Premier League becoming something of a closed shop. And there will probably be calls for a wider distribution of the billions the EPL earns, whether in the form of increased parachute payments, or just some form of “trickle down” payments to clubs in the lower divisions. Whether Premier League clubs would want to share their riches further is another matter of course. But for now, it appears it’s harder than ever for promoted teams to stay in the top flight… and for those already there, 30 points could well be the new benchmark for survival. Over to Leeds, Burnley and either Sheffield United or Sunderland!