Across Europe, domestic football league competitions are reaching tempo di sedere cigolante, as we’re almost sure the Italians do not call squeaky bum time. In England, Liverpool are coasting towards a record-equalling 20th top-tier title, whilst in Germany, Harry Kane finally looks set to end his long wait for silverware, with Bayern closing in on the Bundesliga trophy. PSG are easing to yet another success in Ligue 1; whilst in Spain, Barca have the upper hand but Real Madrid could, just maybe, overturn the current four-point advantage their Catalan rivals hold.
In Italy, however, the title race looks set to be one of the most interesting we have seen in years. Whilst a number of clubs could still take the scudetto, in practice the 20 teams in Serie A have been whittled down to two. With five games of the campaign remaining both Inter Milan and Napoli hold a seven-point lead over Atalanta, with Bologna a further four points back.
With 33 games played both Inter and Napoli have 71 points, collected thanks to 21 wins, eight draws and four defeats. The latter hold the best defensive record in the division but the former have scored 20 more goals and boast a goal difference that is superior by 13. Advantage Inter? Not necessarily.
Title Settled by a Play-Off?
There is a lot of football still to be played, with 15 points up for grabs for both title hopefuls. Perhaps we should not get ahead of ourselves. However, the prospect of a play-off is too tantalising, so we cannot resist positing, what if?
Many English fans might assume that with Inter boasting a goal difference of +40, compared to +27 for their rivals from the south, that they hold the cards should both clubs end level on points. However, whilst the Premier League and many other leagues use goal difference as the first tiebreaking factor, Serie A does not.
In the Premier League there was a small chance of Manchester City and Liverpool requiring a play-off as the 2018/19 season drew to a close. With one game left a highly unlikely pair of results for the two sides would have left them level on points, goal difference and goals scored. In such a scenario a one-off play-off clash would have been needed to settle the title, an eventuality that has never happened in Premier League history. As it was, City won 4-1 on the final day and claimed glory. But in Italy, the tiebreak system used when clubs end level on points is different.
When Is a Play-Off Used?
The tiebreak mechanism has changed over the years in Italy but since 2022 it has been very simple. It two sides finish level on points, be that at the top for the title or the bottom in the relegation places, then a play-off game is used to separate them. For clubs threatened by relegation a two-legged play-off is used but to settle the title it is a one-off, winner-takes-all affair.
This rule, or versions of it, had been in place in Italy for many years but in 2004/05 it was changed. Between then and 2022/23 the head-to-head record between the clubs involved was the first means by which teams on level points would be separated. Goal difference would be used after that. The change was made as it was deemed unreasonable that the title could, in theory, ultimately be settled by a penalty shootout.
However, for whatever reason the powers that be decided to revert back to the old system a few years ago. The prospect of a winner-takes-all battle is certainly one that captures the imagination of fans and, harsh as it would be for the loser, the game itself would attract a huge audience.
Inter Could Be Feeling Nervous
Only once before has a play-off decided who the champions of Italy were and that was over 60 years ago. Perhaps ominously, Inter came out on the wrong side of things back then, with some older fans of the Nerazzurri no doubt still able to recall the heartache.
After the standard 34-game season the Milan outfit and Bologna had 54 points (it was two points for a win back then). Not that it mattered but they had also both scored 54 goals, though the eventual champions had a slightly better goal difference by virtue of having conceded three goals fewer.
The decider was played ay a neutral venue – the Stadio Olimpico in Rome – and Bologna triumphed 2-0. The game was 0-0 until the 75th minute, no doubt adding to the pain felt by the Inter fans. Though of course, no doubt making the joy of Bologna supporters even more intense.
Might We Really See a Play-Off in 2025?
As said, there are still 30 points in total for the two teams to play for, so we shouldn’t get too excited just yet. However, it is certainly looking a distinct possibility and if there is to be a play-off, it seems likely to be held in Milan, at the San Siro. That is because the team with the superior goal difference gets to host the play-off nowadays and, as said, Inter are currently well ahead in that regard.
It is also worth noting that if we do reach a play-off, then there would be no extra time. If the two cannot be separated during 90 minutes – and that has been the case in both league meetings between them this term – then we will go straight to penalties!
That is an exciting prospect, but just how likely is it? The two sets of fixtures can be seen below, with the opponents’ current league placing in brackets:
| Inter Milan Fixtures | Napoli Fixtures |
|---|---|
| 26/4 – Roma (7) at home | 27/4 – Torino (10) at home |
| 3/5 – Verona (14) at home | 3/5 – Lecce (17) away |
| 11/5 – Torino (10) away | 11/5 – Genoa (13) at home |
| 18/5 – Lazio (6) at home | 18/5 – Parma (15) away |
| 25/5 – Como (12) away | 25/5 – Cagliari (16) at home |
Both teams play three matches at home and two away but Napoli clearly have the easier fixtures. The Roman duo of Lazio and Roma are still fighting for European places and though Inter are at home against both, those will be tough fixtures. Despite that, Inter are the very slight favourites with the bookies to seal the title. However, many betting sites cannot separate the pair and price them at the same odds – suggesting we might just have a 39th game to look forward to!