Betting on football is hugely popular across Europe, which comes as little surprise as it is the national sport in nations, such as England, Spain, and France. This is something that sportsbooks have latched onto, with the sheer number of markets available to bet on growing annually. Nowadays, punters can expect to wager on players to score, get carded, and make fouls, as well as the standard and historically popular betting options such as match result and both teams to score.
Are the days of long-formed accumulators a thing of the past? Growing numbers of bettors on football have turned their attentions to the over/under goals market as a source of income, but could it be a profitable angle worth considering when making selections?
What Is Over/Under Goals Betting?
Over/Under betting is by no means a no market that has been introduced online, but it is one that is gaining traction as one of the most popular.
Bookies, like Thunderpick sportsbook, will set a benchmark for a specific fixture, and the bettor will place their stake on there being either more or less goals than the total set.
For the most part, 2.5 is a prominent benchmark, with bettors placing their wager on over if they believe that there will be at least three goals, and under if there is a sense that there will be no more than two goals. Returns are awarded following the full-time whistle based on the total number of goals scored in the match.
Is It a Solid Strategy This Season?
Based on the stats recorded by Premier League teams already this season, an over/under strategy would reap rewards for many bettors. To date, there have been 207 matches played in the English top-flight since mid-August, with 617 goals being scored. Therefore, there has been an average of 2.98 efforts per match. That overall average looks reliable, but there are certainly teams that are more prone to fall below the required benchmark based on results picked up this season.
The most infrequent team to breach the 2.5 goals benchmark this season is Everton, with only 35% of their matches seeing three goals or more scored. However, only two other sides rank below 50% in terms of being under 2.5 goals, with Ipswich games seeing more than three goals scored in just 45% of their matches, and Crystal Palace just below that tally at 43%.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Brentford have been the team involved in the most games that have seen over 2.5 goals being scored with 76% of their matches breaching that benchmark. Aston Villa and Man City also rank highly based on this season’s tallies, with 71% of their matches seeing at least three goals being scored. The highest average goal per game in the Premier League this season is Wolves, who have seen an average of 3.76 per match, which is largely down to having the league’s worst attacking record.
Historical Evidence Backs Up Profitability
Last season marked the second straight campaign in which bettors would have been profit if placing a bet on over 2.5 goals in every match during the season. In 2023-24, it is found that 3800 in stakes would have returned a profit of 180.2.
However, while recent seasons support the profitability arguments surrounding the betting angle, it doesn’t transcend in every season across the last ten years. For example, there would have been mighty losses in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons where the averages were closer to 2.5 goals per game.
In the former, there was an average of 2.72 efforts records in the 380 matches, with low-scoring teams such as Crystal Palace, Norwich City, and Sheffield United dragging the average down. The following season would have been even more damning for those following the strategy.
That is reflected in the 2020-21 season, as an average of 2.69 goals per game were scored across the 380 matches in the Premier League. Low-scoring teams in the season, included Fulham and Sheffield United, who both failed to reach 30 goals in the top-flight.
Is the Premier League the Best Average?
The average of 2.98 goals per match in the Premier League only furthers its claims as the best league in the world. However, it may not be the most fruitful option for those looking to follow an over 2.5 betting strategy.
On the opposite end of the argument, under 2.5 goals could be a solid angle in Serie A, with 2.67 goals being scored on average per game in 2024-25.
Ligue 1 ranks closely to the Premier League with 2.96 goals being registered per match in 153 matched played to this point. However, the best league for over 2.5 goals per game could come in the form of the Bundesliga. The German top-flight has seen a staggering 3.29 efforts recorded in 148 matches so far in 2024-25.