After 22 games of the 2024/25 Premier League season Ipswich Town, in 18th position, have just 16 points on the board. Beneath them Leicester City are on 14 points, whilst rock-bottom Southampton unintentionally continue their quest to claim the title of “Worst Team in Premier League History”. The Saints have amassed a meagre total of just six points, having earned points at a rate not much better than one every four games thus far.
At this rate we could see an incredibly low points total being sufficient to stay up, although there are still 16 games to go for most clubs and so in theory 48 points are up for grabs. However, the way the bottom three sides are performing at the moment – and have been, really, for most of the season – it is possible that as few as 30 points might ensure survival for the other teams down at the wrong end of the table.
The likes of Everton, Wolves and, dare we say it, Spurs, West Ham and Man United, may only need a few more wins to reach a total that ends up being too much for the current trio propping up the table. The Saints, Leicester and Ipswich all lost again at the weekend just gone (18th and 19th of January) and all are in truly woeful form. But can any of them survive, or will we see the three newly promoted teams all go straight back down?
Southampton Looking Doomed
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Southampton are 10 points adrift of safety, or more probably 11 given their shocking goal difference of negative 35. They are the lowest scorers in the division having netted just 15 goals all season, whilst they also have the worst defensive record having shipped 50 goals. They changed manager shortly before Christmas but little has changed and if anything they seem to be getting worse.
No player has scored more than two Premier League goals for them this term and they are in serious danger of challenging Derby County’s record-low points total of 11, set in 2007/08. They “only” need two more wins to surpass that abysmal tally but where will they come from? They have lost five league games in a row since a good 0-0 draw at Fulham. Before that they had taken just a single point from six games as well, meaning they have won just two points in 12 games since the start of November.
On Sunday, Southampton found themselves 3-0 down after just 41 minutes away at Forest and their travelling fans must have feared a true spanking. To their credit, they battled back to only lose 3-2 but they could easily have conceded more, whilst their two consolation goals came against a backdrop of an xG of just 0.89.
Taking a Look at the Bookmaker Odds
The bookmakers offer odds of just 1/40 for Ivan Juric’s men to be relegated, with other bookies going even shorter, as low as 1/500. For the uninitiated, that means that if you bet £500 on the Saints to go down you would get back the princely sum of £501 when – not if, in our opinion – they do. Those odds tell you just about all you need to know and the real target for the club now is at least a veneer of respectability to set them up for life in the Championship next term.
Ruud’s Leicester in Real Trouble
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On the 24th of November, 2024 Leicester confirmed Steve Cooper had left his post as manager. Cooper was an experienced manager with a proven track record, both of winning trophies, with England U-17s, and of keeping sides in the Premier League, something he had achieved in his previous job with Leicester’s rivals, Forest.
When the Foxes parted ways with the Welshman they were 16th and sitting outside the relegation zone, if not comfortably, at least with a little room to spare. Within a week they had appointed Dutchman Ruud van Nistelrooy, a relatively inexperienced manager who had seemingly impressed various clubs around the world in a four-game stint as interim boss at Man United.
United won three of those games and drew the other and all of a sudden Van Nistelrooy was in demand. The fact that two of those wins came against Leicester, and the other against Greek outfit PAOK didn’t seem to matter and, by all accounts Ruud’s phone was red-hot. Leicester’s decision to appoint him seemed a decent one when the club beat West Ham and drew with Brighton (both at home) in his first two games in charge.
However, since then the East Midlands outfit have lost seven league games in a row. Included in those seven defeats are home losses to Wolves and Crystal Palace, and their goal difference over the run is -16. The Foxes have two away games next in the Premier League and if they do not beat either Spurs or Everton – and even Southampton managed to beat Everton! – it is hard to see a way back for them.
Last time out Leicester lost 2-0 at home against Fulham, having lost by the same score, at the same ground, to Palace, three days earlier. They are priced at odds of 1/7 to be relegated and even at that price they may be worth backing!
Ipswich May Have Hope
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Ipswich have no right to be in the Premier League and are operating on a budget that is dwarfed by most sides in the division. They were in the third tier as recently as 2023, having won consecutive promotions to make it into the big time. They spent big in the summer and actually made some decent signings, such as Liam Delap, but they were starting from a very low place, with many in the squad having played in League One.
In Kieran McKenna they have a hugely promising young manager and hopefully they will stick with him no matter what happens this term. They failed to win any of their first 10 games back in the top flight and were outclassed at times but 11 points in 12 games since then gave them hope. However, their last two have been at home and they have lost 2-0 and 6-0.
Man City put them to the sword last time out and things don’t get any easier: next up, a trip to Anfield to face the current league leaders Liverpool. After that they host Southampton in a must-win game but even so, the bookies rate them as a 4/7 shot to go down and it is hard to disagree with that.