A thrilling week of UEFA Europa Conference League action saw the 16 remaining teams battle it out in the first-leg clashes. With the return fixtures set for Thursday, 14th March, we break down the key moments and how each tie is poised heading into the decisive second leg.
F.C. Copenhagen 1-2 Chelsea
- Copenhagen Quarter-Final Odds: 12/1
- Chelsea Quarter-Final Odds: 1/25
Chelsea began the round of 16 as odds-on favourites to lift the Conference League trophy and nothing has changed following their 2-1 win over Copenhagen. Showing he is prepared to take this competition reasonably seriously, Enzo Maresca named a strong team for the clash in Denmark.
Even with a few senior players missing, Chelsea were able to get the job done despite it being a drab affair. The teams only recorded two shots on target each but that was all the Blues needed to take a lead back to London with them. With only one goal in it, you cannot say the tie is over but it would be a huge shock if Maresca’s side didn’t see this tie out.
Molde 3-2 Legia Warsaw
- Molde Quarter-Final Odds: 4/7
- Legia Quarter-Final Odds: 5/4
Molde looked in a great position to put this round-of-16 clash to bed in just the first leg after racing to a 3-0 half-time lead. The Polish visitors regrouped during the interval though and came out fighting. Their much-improved second-half display saw them pull two goals back and end up with more xG than their opponents (2.49 vs 1.82).
We could be in for a similarly entertaining return leg as Legia regularly find the net, even on their off days. Goncalo Feio’s side have scored in every Conference League game this season and their attacking powering could see them turn this tie around especially as Molde have been unconvincing on their European away trips.
Panathinaikos 3-2 Fiorentina
- Panathinaikos Quarter-Final Odds: 4/5
- Fiorentina Quarter-Final Odds: 19/20
Another five-goal thriller in the Conference League saw Panathinaikos edge out former tournament second-favourites Fiorentina. The slightly surprising defeat has seen the Italians pushed down to third in the betting, behind Real Betis, but you should fancy them to turn things around in Florence.
We saw enough quality from Raffaele Palladino’s men to think they can come back from behind. They were arguably the better side in Greece and created five big chances to their opponent’s zero. Additionally, Panathinaikos have looked poor away from home this competition, with their only win coming against Welsh side, The New Saints.
Real Betis 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes
- Real Betis Quarter-Final Odds: 7/10
- Guimaraes Quarter-Final Odds: 21/20
For a side that may be thinking they can go all the way in this competition, Real Betis will be a little frustrated with their first-leg showing. Twice they took the lead in Spain and twice they were pegged back just minutes later. Needless to say, a draw against a team that at the time was seventh in the Portuguese league is a disappointment.
According to Opta’s calculations, this is the most evenly poised tie of the match with Real Betis handed a 52.2% chance of progressing to the quarter-finals. A close encounter looks likely but we believe the Spanish side’s superior quality will end up making the difference on Thursday.
Borac Banja Luka 1-1 Rapid Vienna
- Borac Quarter-Final Odds: 10/3
- Rapid Vienna Quarter-Final Odds: 2/9
For a team that had never previously qualified for a European competition, Borac have done very well to still be involved in the Conference League. They are not without hope of going even further too after they managed to salvage a first leg draw through an injury-time penalty.
Although Borac again showed little attacking quality, they might be happy seeing if they can grind out another draw and take this game to penalties. The Bosnians have a strong defensive record, conceding just eight goals from their nine Conference League matches. For any neutrals deciding which game to watch on Thursday, we would recommend avoiding this one.
Celje 1-0 Lugano
- Celje Quarter-Final Odds: 8/11
- Lugano Quarter-Final Odds: 1/1
Defeat in Slovenia made it four losses in a row across all competitions from Lugano, and just one win in their last seven. By contrast, Celje made it four wins from five and extended their unbeaten run in the Conference League to four matches.
Although the form guide favours the Slovenians, in a nervy knockout clash, form can often count for little. This is a tie Lugano should be winning given their estimated squad value is about four times that of Celje’s and they were the better team during the first leg, despite the result. So, even without the suspended Antonios Papadopoulos, they are likely to secure victory on the night.
Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 Cercle Brugge
- Jagiellonia Quarter-Final Odds: 1/14
- Cercle Quarter-Final Odds: 10/1
Out of the eight Conference League clashes, the only team to win by more than a one-goal margin were Jagiellonia Bialystok. Despite the emphatic victory, the Polish champions only managed to break the deadlock after Cercle went down to 10 men, 59 minutes into the contest.
Before that, it was an even match between two teams who finished the league phase with an identical record (three wins, two draws, one loss). Hope of a comeback seems slim though as Cercle are stuck in a huge rut at the moment. Thursday’s defeat extended their winless run to seven matches and they have scored just five goals in this time.
Pafos 1-0 Djurgarden
- Pafos Quarter-Final Odds: 1/4
- Djurgarden Quarter-Final Odds: 11/4
Despite only needing to overturn a one-goal deficit at home, the bookmakers strongly fancy Pafos to make it into the quarter-finals. It seems a little strange especially given that Djurgarden finished fifth in the league phase while Paphos were down in 12th. Additionally, it is not as though Pafos looked vastly superior in the first leg, producing an xG of just 0.69 more than the visitors.
For us, this tie is more open than the odds suggest – an assessment backed up by Opta’s supercomputer which gives the Swedes a 31.3% chance of progressing. For a team that has beaten the likes of Panathinaikos and Legia Warsaw at home this season, you would be foolish to write off the Scandinavians here.