Argentina claimed their third World Cup title at the 2022 tournament in Qatar when they beat France on penalties in the final. It gave Lionel Messi the last major piece of silverware he hadn’t already won and further cemented his place as the greatest footballer of the modern era.
Four years on, and the global showpiece will be staged in North America, with Canada, the USA and Mexico sharing the hosting duties. Argentina won the World Cup twice in three editions between 1978 and 1986, but can they become only the third nation – after Italy (1934 and 1938) and Brazil (1958 and 1962) – to successfully defend their title?
History would seem to be against them. However, they may take some inspiration from the fact that their second win, in 1986, came in Mexico. On the other hand, the final this year will be in America, and the last time the South American giants played a World Cup game in the States, they were shocked by Romania, losing 3-2 in the last 16 in 1994.
Qualification a Breeze for Champions
Argentina were the first South American side to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, and in the end, they topped the CONMEBOL standings with ease. They finished nine points above Ecuador, who surprisingly finished second, albeit they were just a point above the other four teams, who also earned automatic qualification to the finals.
Lionel Scaloni’s men won 12 of their 18 fixtures, beating great rivals Brazil 1-0 away and 4-1 in Buenos Aires. Brazil may yet come good under the expert leadership of Carlo Ancelotti, but they were not impressive at all in qualifying, so we should not read too much into these Argentina wins. Even so, fans of La Albiceleste still took huge joy from them, that’s for sure.
The table-toppers were easily the highest-scoring nation in South American qualification. They netted 31 goals, more than double the tally of Ecuador and three more than Colombia, who finished third and were the second-highest scoring team.
Unsurprisingly, it was Lionel Messi who was Argentina’s top scorer. He may turn 39 during the World Cup, but in many ways, Messi remains the main man for his country. They have several excellent players, such as Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, plus a host of Premier League stars including Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, possibly the world’s top keeper in Emi Martinez and the man Messi described as “the best defender in the world”, Christian Romero. But Messi is the player who can still inspire and lead his side.
Will Messi Play?
However, for all that Argentina need Messi, it remains unclear whether he will even be at the World Cup. The official line for some time is that the Inter Miami man, who recently had a stand named after him at the Florida side’s new stadium, is undecided about whether or not he will play.
The crypto betting markets don’t think it’s so uncertain though, showing a strong 90% yes on Polymarket. Although this could be skewed by Argentina’s stronger than average association with crypto due to their currency issues – the national team even has a prominent uk crypto casino guide as regional sponsor.
At the end of March, ahead of friendlies against football giants Mauritania and Zambia, national head coach Scaloni once again stated that Messi was not certain he would feature. The Rosario-born star came off the bench against Mauritania and started and scored against Zambia. However, his namesake stated that while he would love his star player to come to North America, “he’s [Messi’s] the one who decides”.
Scaloni added that Messi had “earned the right to decide calmly. We are not in a rush. We know that whatever he decides will be the best thing for both him and the team. We hope he’ll be there but I can’t say much more.”
Messi had previously stated that he would assess things on a day-by-day basis. He said that he wanted to “see if I can really be 100 per cent, if I can be useful and then make a decision”.
Based on current form, plus the fact that his manager said, “I believe that he has to be there, for the sake of football,” we believe he will be named in the squad. Scaloni also noted that “everyone wants to see him” and suggested he was more than open to the idea of using him sparingly if he was unable to play 90 minutes.
Can Argentina Defend Their Crown?
Argentina win the World Cup on penalties! 🏆 @adidasfootball | #FIFAWorldCup
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) December 18, 2022
Messi has evolved his style somewhat, and while he lacks that electric burst of pace that could take him away from defenders, his touch, passing and finishing remain world-class. He has five goals in five games in MLS 2026, and four goals and three assists in his last seven games for Argentina, mean we believe his nation would be weaker without him. His experience, aura and leadership would surely be useful, and he would, at the very least, be one hell of an impact sub against tiring defenders.
With his involvement uncertain, Argentina are the fourth favourites to lift the World Cup. They are priced at odds of 17/2, a shade shorter than Brazil at 9/1. Only Spain (5/1), France (6/1) and England (8/1) are deemed more likely winners than the 2022 champions. If, and we hope when, Messi confirms his desire to play, we believe Argentina will shorten a little. With or without him, they have to be respected, and with world-class players in all areas of the pitch, they certainly have a fighting chance of defending their title.