Elsewhere on this site you can read about betting on the Group Winner in the various tournaments that take place in football. This bet is one on the Winning Group, which is a different thing, even though it sounds very similar. As opposed to betting on the side that will win the group, you’re betting on which group will contain the overall winner of the competition in question. That means that you are effectively betting on several teams to potentially win the tournament, which usually lowers the odds when compared to betting on the individual team to win because of the fact that there are more chances to win.
The Bet Explained
When you watch a tournament nowadays, there is usually a group stage before the knockout tournament proper gets underway. Whether you’re a fan of Champions League football, the World Cup or the European Championship, there is a good chance that you will watch teams playing each other in other for the right to finish within the places that will see them make it through to the knockout stage of the competition. Whilst these matches obviously matter, they aren’t quite as crucial as the next round, at which point any loss would be fatal to the team’s ambitions of winning the overall tournament, given the fact that they’ll have been knocked out.
You can obviously choose to place a bet on the overall winner of the competition, but one of the bets that you might choose to explore instead is on the group that contains the eventual winner. How many teams there will be in each group will depend on the tournament and the rules of it, but what you’ll want to do is to have a look to see if any one group appears to be stronger than the others. Obviously the bookmakers will automatically offer much shorter odds on the group that contains the team that they think will eventually end up winning the contest, whilst groups that contain teams that they think have no chance will have longer odds.
Is it a Good Value Bet?
The obvious question to ask is whether or not there is much value in the bet. In order to get a sense of that, it is worth having a look at the odds offered on the Winning Group market when compared to odds on teams that are in that group. Here is a look at how the bookmakers priced all of the various markets up for the Euro 2024 tournament, looking at each of the groups and the odds offered on the teams in it:
Group A – Winning Group Odds: 5/1
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Germany | 11/2 |
| Scotland | 100/1 |
| Hungary | 80/1 |
| Switzerland | 80/1 |
It is clear that Germany are the team dragging down the odds of the group, given the fact that all of Switzerland, Hungary and Scotland are seen as being extremely unlikely to win it. With that in mind, a £10 bet on Germany would see you get a return of £65, whilst a £10 bet on Group A as the Winning Group would return £60, so it would be better value to bet on Germany on their own unless you think any of the other teams have a chance.
Group B – Winning Group Odds: 7/2
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain | 7/1 |
| Croatia | 40/1 |
| Italy | 16/1 |
| Albania | 250/1 |
In comparison to Group A, the bookies obviously think that Group B has more of a chance of producing the overall winner, which is reflected in the 7/2 odds. This time, the bet on the Winning Group market might make more sense, given the fact that both Spain and Italy are seen as having something of a chance. That being said, a £10 bet on either of the two teams would produce greater returns if either of them won than a £10 bet on the Winning Group market, albeit it would cost twice as much.
Group C – Winning Group Odds: 5/2
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Slovenia | 200/1 |
| Denmark | 40/1 |
| Serbia | 100/1 |
| England | 3/1 |
It is England dragging the odds down on the group rather considerable here, given the fact that Slovenia and Serbia are seen as having next to no chance of winning the Euros outright. Denmark are seen as an outside chance, meaning that a £10 wager might be worth it if you think they could do it. £10 on odds of 5/2 would return £35, which is £5 less than a straight bet on England, so it’s really dependant on how much of a chance you think any of the other teams have.
Group D – Winning Group Odds: 9/4
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Netherlands | 16/1 |
| France | 10/3 |
| Poland | 100/1 |
| Austria | 80/1 |
With both the Netherlands and France seen as having a chance by the bookmakers, it is little wonder that the odds on this group are so low. A bet on the Netherlands on their own would be much better value than one on the Winning Group, but a Winning Group wager would only return slightly less than France on their own.
Group E – Winning Group Odds: 12/1
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ukraine | 100/1 |
| Slovakia | 500/1 |
| Belgium | 14/1 |
| Romania | 200/1 |
With only Belgium given any sort of chance by the bookmakers, it’s little wonder this is the group with the longest odds. It would obviously be better value to bet on the individual teams if you actually thought they had a chance of winning, but it’s not a bad bet to cover all of the options.
Group F – Winning Group Odds: 15/2
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Portugal | 8/1 |
| Czechia | 150/1 |
| Georgia | 250/1 |
| Turkey | 66/1 |
Portugal are seen as an outside chance for the win, but with all of the others seen as pretty much no hopes, it probably makes more sense to bet on the team directly.
In terms of if it’s a bet with good value, the answer depends on how many strong teams there are in a group. If you have a real sense of who is going to win then betting on them directly is the most sensible thing to do, but if you’re unsure then a Winning Group bet gives you a bit of leeway.